Crew-by-crew predictions

Bumps predictions

The darker the line, the more likely the crew is to follow that path. The percentages give the probability of the crew finishing in that position each day.

Outcome probabilities

Known results

These are all the results we have in our database for this crew. Please get in contact if you spot any mistakes!

The column “adjusted split” adjusts the raw time for the event and division’s conditions and length, allowing finish times to be compared between different events and divisions. As the adjustments for the conditions are estimated, there is uncertainty in the adjusted split. The “80% CI” gives the range of values that we are 80% sure the true value lies within1.

Results

Event Raw time Raw split Adjusted split (80% CI)

  1. Formally, these are Bayesian credible intervals, which means that there is an 80% probability that the true value lies within the interval if our model is correct.↩︎