Here we lay out our one day ahead predictions for the next day’s racing. The basis is our overall estimates of crew speeds, but they’re adjusted based on previous days’ performances. For example, if a crew has gone up more than we’d expect, we’ll adjust our prediction to reflect that. We don’t incorporate additional information beyond the results, for example crashes.
Please note that the methodology behind these predictions is lower quality than our overall estimates, so take them with an even larger pinch of salt. The predictions on the boundaries of decisions will not always align, as each division is modelled independently here.
The columns of each table give the probability of each crew moving up by more than one place (>+1), moving up by one place (+1), staying in the same place (0), moving down by one place (-1), and moving down by more than one place (<-1). Crews can move more than one place in a day either by being involved in an overbump or being the sandwich boat.
Unfortunately, we have had some technical modelling issues which means that we will definitely not be producing predictions for Friday, and probably not for Saturday either. Apologies for this, we will try and improve our approach for future sets of Bumps.
Please note that the W2 division predictions for this day are especially uncertain, and should be viewed with extreme caution.
Please note that the M3 division predictions for this day are especially uncertain, and should be viewed with extreme caution.